Israel Preparing for Attack on Iran
Israel has already proven it can take unilateral action to defend itself (such as the raid on Osirak). Many times in fact. It beat back nine Arab nations in the Yom Kippur War, after all. Quite capable, one might say. But are they capable enough to knock out Iran’s nuclear program?
Today, the Times of London is reporting that:
Israel’s armed forces have been ordered by Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, to be ready by the end of March for possible strikes on secret uranium enrichment sites in Iran, military sources have revealed.
The American Thinker believes that Israel cannot knock out Iran’s nuclear program on its own. Which may be true, given the supposed scale of their program, and the secrecy in which it is shrouded. Many accounts tell of multiple programs, and of facilities hidden amongst civilian factories, and in the middle of large cities. Any attack could be seen as an attack on civilians, which might bode badly for Israel, or any attacker for that matter.
Imagine hitting a nuclear enrichment site for example, causing a large explosion (via the use of bombs), and then spreading the nuclear material to the surrounding area. Potential deaths are staggering of course, and the PR disaster would be immense (not to mention the probable war that would ensue). Israel would also have a very difficult time justifying the deaths of many civilians in terms of knocking out a program which thus far Iran has steadfastly claimed is only a civilian nuclear program.
As Mark in Mexico puts it succinctly, this will end badly. Israel is indeed stuck between a rock and a hard place, an island of Judaism amid a sea of Islam. As it stands she has tough choices to make, but preventing Iran from attaining nuclear weapons is something the entire world wants to stop. So will she be supported by the European powers if she chooses to attack, or will the world shun and ostracize her?
As a follow-on from the above, the TPMCafe has a great article about the possible domino effects of Iran achieving nuclear weapons. Interestingly they bring up the WMD-free zone that was proposed in the 90′s, and the difficulty of getting proliferators to de-proliferate. And, In the Bullpen has a great article about a middle east intelligentsia called Jihad al Khazen (yes, an unfortunate first name) and his point of view that no-one in the region wants Iran to have nuclear weapons, but at the same time, finds it perplexing that Israel is permitted to have them.
The Times of London also puts something else on the table that could be a sore point:
Cross-border operations and signal intelligence from a base established by the Israelis in northern Iraq are said to have identified a number of Iranian uranium enrichment sites unknown to the the IAEA.
An Israeli base in Iraq? That could be bad. What muslim nation would give them permission to do that, exactly? Glenn Greenwald also asks that question, and points out the massive strategic value of bases in Iraq.
The Daily Pundit gets to the truth of the matter by saying that Israel cannot afford to conduct sanctions or international condemnations. How true. Remember that only a few weeks ago, the President of Iran, Ahmadinejad said that Israel should be wiped off the map, and then just recently suggested Israel be moved to Europe. Given this, The Daily Pundit‘s sentiments seem to be pointing out the seriousness of Sharon’s readiness orders.
Something in the Times of London article though, leads me to believe this could be a bit of literary license:
If a military operation is approved, Israel will use air and ground forces against several nuclear targets in the hope of stalling Tehran’s nuclear programme for years, according to Israeli military sources.
I don’t think they would risk putting boots on the ground. I mean, risking them being caught is very stupid. But then again, bombing Iran‘s nuclear program would probably start a serious shooting war anyway…
Let’s hope this is all saber-rattling. Fervently, I pray that if they do attack Iran, they hit what they go for, and not civilians. That would be just another excuse to blame the west for not keeping tighter control upon our supposed proxy in the region.
Cross-posted at The English Guy.
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